Objective To evaluate the risk of management decision combined neo-adjuvant chemotherapy with operation for colorectal cancer by means of the colorectal cancer model of the Association of Coloproctology of Great Britain and Ireland (ACPGBI-CCM). Methods One hundred and eighty-one eligible patients (102 male, 79 female, mean age 58.78 years), which were pathologically proved colorectal cancer in our ward from July to November 2007, involved 62 colonic and 119 rectal cancer. The enrollment were assigned into multi-disciplinary team (MDT) group (n=65) or non-MDT group (n=116), according to whether the MDT was adopted, and the operative risk was analyzed by ACPGBI-CCM. Results The baseline characteristics of MDT and non-MDT group were coherent. The watershed of lower risk group (LRG) and higher risk group (HRG) was set as predictive mortality=2.07%. The time involving extraction of gastric, urethral and drainage tube, feeding, out-of-bed activity after operation in MDT group, whatever in LRG or HRG, were statistically earlier than those in non-MDT group (P＜0.05). The resectable rate in LRG was statistically higher than that in HRG (P＜0.05), and the proportion of Dukes staging was significantly different (P＜0.05) between two groups; Moreover, predictive mortality in HRG was statistically higher than that in LRG (P＜0.05), while actually there was no death in both groups. Conclusion Dukes staging which is included as an indispensable option by ACPGBI-CCM is responsible for the lower predictive mortality in LRG.Hence, the value of ACPGBI-CCM used to asses the morbidity of complications within 30 days postoperatively would be warranted by further research. The postoperative risk evaluation can serve as a novel routine to comprehensively analyze the short-term safe in the MDT.
Objective To investigate the application of risk assessment in the control of nosocomial infections in surgical departments of infectious disease hospitals so as to provide references for the regulation of prevention and control measures. Methods Nosocomial infection risks in surgical departments of infectious disease hospitals were identified by the method of brainstorming. Based on risk assessment and planning of American children's national medical center in Washington for epidemic and infectious diseases control, the matrix method was used for risk assessment. The three highest risks were controlled, and then we compared the incidence of nosocomial infections before and after the risk assessment. Results The major risk factors in surgical departments existed in the process of diagnosis and treatment. By matrix scoring, excluding high readiness items, we found that the top three risks were airborne diseases, prevention and nursing of hematogenous infections and air disinfection. Nosocomial infection rate in the surgical departments dropped to 2.03% after carrying out risk assessment and taking correspondent measures (χ2=5.480,P=0.019). Conclusion Evaluation of nosocomial infection risk in surgical departments of infectious disease hospitals can discover major potential risks and reduce the incidence of nosocomial infections, which can provide references for management and control of nosocomial infections.
Objective To comprehensively compare the methods and tools for medical risk management and assessment in the United Kingdom, the United States, Canada, Australia and Taiwan region (hereafter shortened as “four countries and one region”), so as to provide evidence and recommendations for medical risk management policy in China. Methods The official websites of the healthcare risk management agencies in these four countries and one region were searched to collect materials concerning healthcare risk management and monitoring, such as laws, regulatory documents, research reports, reviews and evaluation forms, then the descriptive comparative analysis was performed on the methods and tools for risk management. Results a) A total of 146 documents were included in this study, including 2 laws, 17 regulatory documents, 41 guidelines, 37 reviews and 49 documents about general information; b) The United Kingdom applied the integrated risk management; Australia and Taiwan adopted the classical risk management process, including risk identification, risk analysis, risk evaluation and risk control, while the United States and Canada mainly chose the prospective failure mode and effects analysis (FMEA) for clinical risk management; c) The severity of clinical risk was divided into five grades in the United Kingdom and Australia, and six in Taiwan, respectively. The frequency of medical risk was divided into five grades with four grade responses in above two countries and one region; and d) There were almost the same processes and tools about Root Cause Analysis (RCA), but a little difference in the objects of analysis in these four countries and one region. Conclusion?There are three models of risk management with the same assessment tools in these four countries and one region: the prospective risk assessment, the retrospective assessment based on occurred incidents and the integrated risk management. Although the grading of risk is similar, the definition of grading is different in the United Kingdom, Australia and Taiwan. The methods and processes of analyses on the adverse events are almost the same in these four countries and one region.
Objective To validate the accuracy of the colorectal cancer model of the Association of Coloproctology of Great Britain and Ireland (ACPGBI-CCM), and to find out the relationship between clinical risk factors and the predictive value produced by ACPGBI-CCM. Methods The patients diagnosed definitely as colorectal cancer in the department of anal-colorectal surgery, West China hospital from April 2007 to July 2007 were analyzed retrospectively. And the predictive value of mortality for each patient was calculated by ACPGBI-CCM, then the difference of risk factors was compared by classifying the patients into lower risk group and higher risk group by making the median predictive mortality as a cut point. Results From April 2007 to July 2007, a total of 99 patients diagnosed definitely as colorectal cancer accepted treatment, and among which 67 patients included in this study were admitted whose average age was 60.09 years. And there were 34 male and 33 female patients; 15 right hemicolon cancer, 9 left hemicolon cancer, 43 rectal cancer; Dukes staging: A 0 case, B 37 cases, C 24 cases, D 6 cases. The observed mortality 30 days after operation was 0, whereas the predictive mortality was 0.77%-25.75% with a median value of 3.36%. Then the patients whose predictive mortality were ≤3.36% were grouped as lower risk group (34 cases), the others higher risk group (33 cases), and there was strikingly different predictive mortality between two groups 〔(8.86±4.51)% vs (1.76±0.68)%, P＜0.01〕. And between two groups, the age, internal medicine complications, preoperative chemotherapy, ASA grading, cancer resected, and operative time made predominant differences (P＜0.01); and the neoplastic complications, Dukes staging, TNM classification, postoperative pain showed differences, too (P＜0.05); however, the gender, history of abdominal operation, the distance of the neoplasm to anal edge, the cancer location, differentiated degree, postoperative hospitalization time, and total hospitalization time didn’t have any differences (Pgt;0.05). Furthermore, stratification analysis was made for risk factors, and it came out that there were great differences of predictive mortality for different age groups and ASA grading, having internal medicine complications or not, having chemotherapy or not, and for cancer resected or not, and the differences were statistically significant (P＜0.01); also different Dukes staging or differentiation could cause different mortality (P＜0.05); but the difference of mortality didn’t make any sense according to gender, having abdominal operative history or not, having neoplastic complications or not, different TNM staging and cancer location (Pgt;0.05). Conclusion The clinical applicability of the ACPGBI-CCM is ascertained in such a large volume single medical centre, but the ACPGBI-CCM overpredicts the mortality in this study which may be attributed to the different areas, nations, or the different cultures. The complications and the neo-adjuvant or adjuvant therapy are further found out that they may be independent predictive factors of survival, and more research will be needed to prove this.
Objective To construct a multi-dimensional risk assessment system and scale for the prevention and control risk of respiratory infectious diseases in general hospitals, and make evaluation and early warning. Methods Through the collection of relevant literature on the prevention and control of respiratory infectious diseases during the period from January 1st, 2020 to December 31st, 2022, the articles related to the risk assessment of respiratory infectious diseases such as severe acute respiratory syndrome, COVID-19 and influenza A (H1N1) were screened, and the Delphi method was used to evaluate the articles and establish an indicator system. The normalized weight and combined weight of each item were calculated by analytic hierarchy process. The technique for order preference by similarity to the ideal solution method was used to calculate the risk composite index of 38 clinical departments in a tertiary general hospital in Jiangxi Province in December 2022. Results A total of 16 experts were included, including 4 with senior titles, 8 with associate senior titles, and 4 with intermediate titles. After two rounds of Delphi consult, a total of 4 first-level indicators, 11 second-level indicators, and 38 third-level indicators of risk assessment for the prevention and control of respiratory infectious diseases were determined. The reliability and validity of the scale were good. The top three items with the largest combined weights in the scale were spread by aerosol, spread by respiratory droplet, and commonly used instruments (inspection instruments and monitoring equipment). After a comprehensive analysis on the 38 departments, the top 10 departments in the risk index were the departments of medical imaging, pediatrics, ultrasound, cardiac and vascular surgery, infection, emergency, respiratory and critical care, general medicine, otolaryngology and neck surgery, stomatology, and obstetrics. Conclusions This study constructed the risk assessment scale of respiratory infectious diseases in general hospitals, and the scale has good reliability and validity. The use of this scale for risk assessment of general hospitals can provide a theoretical basis for the risk characteristics of prevention and control of respiratory infectious diseases in general hospitals.
European system for cardiac operative risk evaluation(EuroSCORE) is one of the widely used and influential cardiac surgery risk assessment system. It was originally used to predict the quantitative score of probability of death after cardiac surgery. After that, it has been developed to predict long-term mortality and survival rate, ICU residence time, treatment costs, main complications and so on. EuroSCORE Ⅱ is the latest version, which is more accurate in predicting mortality, long term survival rate than the old one. But there are also some limitations as predicting limited range of the end, underestimating the mortality of critically endangered patients, lacking adequate preoperative risk factors and so on. This review article focuses on the production, development and clinical application of EuroSCORE.
Abstract： Objective To evaluate prediction validation of Sino System for Coronary Operative Risk Evaluation （SinoSCORE） on in-hospital mortality in adult heart surgery patients in West China Hospital.?Methods?We included clinical records of 2 088 consecutive adult patients undergoing heart surgery in West China Hospital from January 2010 to May 2012, who were also included in Chinese Adult Cardiac Surgical Registry.We compared the difference of preoperative risk factors for the patients between Chinese Adult Cardiac Surgical Registry and West China Hospital. SinoSCORE was used to predict in-hospital mortality of each patient and to evaluate the discrimination and calibration of SinoSCORE for the patients.?Results?Among the 2 088 patients in West China Hospital, there were 168 patients （8.05%） undergoing coronary artery bypass grafting （CABG）, 1 884 patients （90.23%） undergoing heart valve surgery, and 36 patients （1.72%） undergoing other surgical procedures. There was statistical difference in the risk factors including hyperlipemia, stroke, cardiovascular surgery history, and kidney disease between the two units.The observed in-hospital mortality was 2.25% （47/2 088）. The predicted in-hospital mortality calculated by SinoSCORE was 2.35% （49/2 088） with 95% confidence interval 2.18 to 2.47. SinoSCORE was able to predict in-hospital mortality of the patients with good discrimination （Hosmer Lemeshow test: χ2=3.164, P=0.582） and calibration （area under the receiver operating characteristic curve of 0.751 with 95% confidence interval 0.719 to 0.924）. Conclusion SinoSCORE is an accurate predictor in predicting in-hospital mortality in adult heart surgery patients who are mainly from southwest China
ObjectiveTo assess the accuracy of European System for Cardiac Operative Risk Evaluation (EuroSCORE) model in predicting the in-hospital mortality of Uyghur patients and Han nationality patients undergoing heart valve surgery. MethodsClinical data of 361 consecutive patients who underwent heart valve surgery at our center from September 2012 to December 2013 were collected, including 209 Uyghur patients and 152 Han nationality patients. According to the score for additive and logistic EuroSCORE models, the patients were divided into 3 subgroups including a low risk subgroup, a moderate risk subgroup, and a high risk subgroup. The actual and predicted mortality of each risk subgroup were studied and compared. Calibration of the EuroSCORE model was assessed by the test of goodness of fit, discrimination was tested by calculating the area under the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve. ResultsThe actual mortality was 8.03% for overall patients, 6.70% for Uyghur patients,and 9.87% for Han nationality patients. The predicted mortality by additive EuroSCORE and logistic EuroSCORE for Uyghur patients were 4.03% and 3.37%,for Han nationality patients were 4.43% and 3.77%, significantly lower than actual mortality (P<0.01). The area under the ROC curve of additive EuroSCORE and logistic EuroSCORE for overall patients were 0.606 and 0.598, for Han nationality patients were 0.574 and 0.553,and for Uyghur patients were 0.609 and 0.610. ConclusionThe additive and logistic EuroSCORE are unable to predict the in-hospital mortality accurately for Uyghur and Han nationality patients undergoing heart valve surgery. Clinical use of these model should be considered cautiously.
Abstract: Objectives To evaluate the accuracy of four existing risk stratification models including the Society of Thoracic Surgeons(STS) 2008 Cardiac Surgery Risk Models for Coronary Artery Bypass Grafting (CABG), the European System for Cardiac Operative Risk Evaluation (EuroSCORE), the American College of Cardiology/American Heart Association (ACC/AHA) model, and the initial Parsonnet’s score in predicting early deaths of Chinese patients after CABG procedure. Methods We collected clinical records of 1 559 consecutive patients who had undergone isolated CABG in the Fu WaiHospital from November 2006 to December 2007. There were 264 females (16.93%) and 1 295 males (83.06%) with an average age of 60.87±9.06 years. Early death was defined as death inhospital or within 30 days after CABG. Calibration was assessed by the Hosmer-Lemeshow (H-L) test, and discrimination was assessed by the receiveroperatingcharacteristic (ROC) curve. The endpoint was early death. Results Sixteen patients(1.03%) died early after the operation. STS and ACC/AHA models had a good calibration in predicting the number of early deaths for the whole group(STS: 12.06 deaths, 95% confidence interval(CI) 5.28 to 18.85; ACC/[CM(159mm]AHA:20.67deaths, 95%CI 11.82 to 29.52 ), While EuroSCORE and Parsonnet models overestimated the number of early deaths for the whole group(EuroSCORE：36.44 deaths，95%CI 24.75 to 48.14；Parsonnet：43.87 deaths，95%CI 31.07 to 56.67). For the divided groups, STS model had a good calibration of prediction(χ2=11.46, Pgt;0.1)，while the other 3 models showed poor calibration（EuroSCORE：χ2=22.07，Plt;0.005；ACC/AHA：χ2=28.85，Plt;0.005；Parsonnet：χ2=26.74，Plt;0.005）.All the four models showed poor discrimination with area under the ROC curve lower than 0.8. Conclusion The STS model may be a potential appropriate choice for Chinese patients undergoing isolated CABG procedure.