Objective To assess the evolving disease burden of esophageal and gastric cancers in China from 1990 to 2021, with a focus on gender disparities, and construct a predictive model to forecast disease trends from 2022 to 2031, aiming to optimize targeted prevention strategies. MethodsEpidemiological data for esophageal and gastric cancers in China (1990-2021) were extracted from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD 2021) database. Temporal trends were analyzed using Joinpoint regression (version 4.9.1.0), and future trends were predicted via the GM (1,1) model under grey system theory. ResultsFrom 1990 to 2021, tobacco- and alcohol-attributable burdens of esophageal cancer increased, while tobacco- and diet-related burdens of gastric cancer declined. Deaths and disability-adjusted life years (DALY) for esophageal cancer rose by 26.38% and 17.89%, respectively; gastric cancer deaths increased by 18.95%, though DALY decreased by 1.22%. Both cancers exhibited significant declines in age-standardized mortality rates (−45.78% for esophageal cancer, −53.29% for gastric cancer) and age-standardized DALY rates (−51.36% for esophageal cancer, −57.58% for gastric cancer). Despite these reductions, China’s age-standardized mortality and DALY rates for both cancers remained consistently higher than global averages, with slower decline rates. Males exhibited disproportionately higher burdens than females. Predictive modeling projected continued but decelerating declines in disease burdens for both cancers by 2031. ConclusionOver three decades, China achieved measurable reductions in esophageal and gastric cancer burdens, though gastric cancer burdens remained higher than esophageal cancer. Persistent disparities relative to global levels, elevated male burdens, and aging demographics highlight the urgency for prioritized interventions targeting high-risk populations.