ObjectiveTo systematically review mortality risk prediction models for acute type A aortic dissection (AAAD). MethodsPubMed, EMbase, Web of Science, CNKI, WanFang Data, VIP and CBM databases were electronically searched to collect studies of mortality risk prediction models for AAAD from inception to July 31th, 2021. Two reviewers independently screened literature, extracted data and assessed the risk of bias of included studies. Systematic review was then performed. ResultsA total of 19 studies were included, of which 15 developed prediction models. The performance of prediction models varied substantially (AUC were 0.56 to 0.92). Only 6 studies reported calibration statistics, and all models had high risk of bias. ConclusionsCurrent prediction models for mortality and prognosis of AAAD patients are suboptimal, and the performance of the models varies significantly. It is still essential to establish novel prediction models based on more comprehensive and accurate statistical methods, and to conduct internal and a large number of external validations.
Abstract： Objective To analyze risk factors for perioperative mortality in the arterial switch operation (ASO), in order to provide better operation and decrease the mortality rate. Methods We enrolled 208 ASO patients including 157 males and 51 females at Fu Wai Hospital between January 1, 2001 and December 31, 2007. The age ranged from 6 h to 17 years with the median age of 90 d and the weight ranged from 3 kg to 43 kg with the median weight of 5 kg. Among the patients, 127 had transposition of great artery (TGA) with ventricular septal defect (VSD), and 81 patients had TGA with intact ventricular septum (IVS) or with the diameter of VSD smaller than 5 mm. Coronary anatomy was normal (1LCX2R) in 151 patients and abnormal in the rest including 15 patients with single coronary artery, 6 with intramural and 36 with inverse coronary artery. Preoperative, perioperative and postoperative clinical data of all patients were collected to establish a database which was then analyzed by univariate analysis and multivariate logistic regression analysis to find out the risk factors formortality in ASO. Results There were 24 perioperative deaths (11.54%) in which 12 died of postoperative infection with multiple organ failure (MOF), 10 died of low cardiac output syndrome, 1 died of pulmonary hypertension, and 1 died of cerebral complications. Among them, 20 patients (18.30%) died in early years from 2001 to 2005, while only 4 (4.00%) died in the time period from 2006 to 2007, which was a significant decrease compared with the former period (Plt;0.05). The univariate analysis revealed that cardiopulmonary bypass (CPB) time was significantly longer in the death group than in the survival group（236±93 min vs. 198±50 min, P=0.002）, and occurrence of major coronary events (33.3% vs. 2.2%, P=0.000) and unusual coronary artery patterns（33.3% vs. 6.5%,P=0.000） were much more in the death group than in the survival group. Multivariate logistic regression analysis showed that early year of [CM(159mm]operation (OR=7.463, P=0.003), unusual coronary artery patterns (OR=6.303,P=0.005) and occurrence of majorcoronary events (OR=17.312, P=0.000) were independent predictors for perioperative mortality. Conclusion The ASO can be performed with low perioperative mortality in our hospital currently. Occurrence of major coronary events, unusual coronary artery patterns and year of surgery before 2006 are independent predictors for perioperative mortality.
Objective To analyze the death cause of residents in Zigong from 1985 to 2009, so as to provide the government with scientific information of health strategies, and disease prevention and control. Methods The death surveillance data in Zigong residents from 1985 to 2009 were collected, and the indexes such as all death mortality rate, infant mortality rate, maternal mortality rate, disease-specific mortality rate, age-specific mortality rate, and life expectancy were analyzed. Results The all death mortality rate had fluctuation of plus or minus 6‰, and the male mortality rate was higher than the female (χ2=8 059.769, P=0.000). The six main influencing factors of the death of Zigong residents were as follows: respiratory system diseases, circulatory system diseases, tumour, injury and poisoning regarded as external cause diseases, digestive system diseases, and infectious diseases and parasitic diseases. The mortality rates of different districts were statistically different (χ2=1 643.926, P=0.000), and Fushun County was the highest among them after standardization. The curve of mortality rate in different sex and age groups was changed alike letter “U”. The mortality rate was ascending with the age in the group of over 15 years old, the ascending trend was more evident especially after 50 years old. The infant mortality declined steadily and was well controlled. The maternal mortality declined obviously. The average life expectancy for the whole city was 74.72, which showed an ascending trend. Conclusion The chronic diseases are the main death cause of residents in Zigong. The prevention and controlling of acute infectious diseases and parasitic diseases should be persistently performed for declining both incidence rate and mortality rate. The Zigong city is gradually stepping into aging society, which requires the great development of senior work.
ObjectiveTo observe the clinical characteristics, the characteristics of organ dysfunction and death related factors in the natural course of severe acute pancreatitis (SAP). MethodsThe data of 302 cases of SAP from January 1999 to June 2007 in our hospital were retrospective analyzed. The APACHEⅡscore, state of each organ, and death related factors were recorded and analyzed according to the admission and on 1, 3, 5, 7, 14, and 28 d after admission, a total of 7 time points. ResultsIn natural course of SAP, the APACHEⅡscore took on a double-peak type distribution, the peaks appearing nearly about one week and two weeks after the onset of SAP. Systemic inflammatory response syndrome (SIRS), hypoxemia, metabolic acidosis, hyperglycemia, and abdominal compartment syndrome were the main causes of early organ failure. Incidence of organ failure and infection increased significantly for patients with intestinal paralysis lasting longer than five days. The most affected organ failure was followed by respiratory organs, peripheral circulation, kidneys, and gastrointestinal tract. The mortality rate increased significantly for patients with organ failure more than 48 hours. Four cases of death (9.5%) caused by severe shock and cardiac arrest within 24 h after admission; 6 deaths (14.3%) led by persistent shock with ARDS or acute renal failure within 24-72 h; 14 cases of death (33.3%) arose from 3-10 d after onset, mainly for acute respiratory distress syndrome (ARDS), acute renal failure associated with multiple organ dysfunction syndrome (MODS); 18 cases (42.8%) of the death arose on 10 d after the onset, mainly for the MODS caused by intra-abdominal infections, bleeding, pancreatic fistula, and biliary fistula. ConclusionsThe natural course of SAP can be divided into three phases:systemic inflammation, systemic infection, and recovery. Duration of intestinal paralysis is an important factor affecting the natural history of SAP. Early complications in patients with organ failure appeared as SIRS, metabolic acidosis, hyperglycemia, and abdominal hypertension. MODS led by SIRS is the leading cause in early death of SAP; MODS caused by pancreas and peripancreatic tissue infections, abdominal bleeding, pancreatic fistula, and biliary fistula are the main death factor in the late phase. Early recovery of gastrointestinal function can reduce the incidence of MODS.
ObjectiveTo analyze the causes of death of patients with asthma-chronic obstructive pulmonary disease overlap syndrome (ACOS). MethodsA total of 493 patients admitted between January 2006 and Octomber 2015 were respectively analyzed, including 348 asthma patients and 145 ACOS patients. The patients was divided into a survival group and a death group based on the outcome. The ACOS patients were divided into three subgroups based on FEV1% pred level (≥80%, 50%-80%, and < 50%, respectively). The basic characteristics and causes of death were analyzed using χ2-test, t-test and Fish-test based on data type. ResultsThe age (t=3.457, P < 0.001), male proportion (χ2=15.394, P < 0.001) and smoking history (χ2=12.418, P=0.002) had significant differences between the survival group and the death group. The proportion of ACOS patients was higher in the death group (42% vs. 27%, χ2=7.033, P=0.008), and the mortality was also higher in the ACOS patients (21% vs. 12%). The proportion of male patients was higher in the ACOS patients than that in the asthma patients (86% vs. 38%, P < 0.001). The leading three causes of death in the ACOS patients were malignant diseases (45%), pneumonia (26%), and cardiovascular diseases (16%). Malignant diseases were the main cause of death in the ACOS patients with FEV1% pred≥50%, while pneumonia was the main cause of death in those with FEV1% pred≥50%. There was no significant difference in cause of death distribution between three subgroups with different FEV1% pred (P=0.318). ConclusionThe main cause of death of ACOS patients is malignant diseases, the followed are pneumonia and cardiovascular diseases.
Abstract： Objective To evaluate the incidence and prognosis of postoperative acute kidney injury （AKI） in patients after cardiovascular surgery， and analyse the value of AKI criteria and classification using the Acute Kidney Injury Network （AKIN） definition to predict their in-hospital mortality. Methods A total of 1 056 adult patients undergoing cardiovascular surgery in Renji Hospital of School of Medicine， Shanghai Jiaotong University from Jan. 2004 to Jun. 2007 were included in this study. AKI criteria and classification under AKIN definition were used to evaluate the incidence and in-hospital mortality of AKI patients. Univariate and multivariate analyses were used to evaluate preoperative， intraoperative， and postoperative risk factors related to AKI. Results Among the 1 056 patients， 328 patients（31.06%） had AKI. In-hospital mortality of AKI patients was significantly higher than that of non-AKI patients （11.59% vs. 0.69%， P＜0.05）. Multivariate logistic regression analysis suggested that advanced age （OR=1.40 per decade）， preoperative hyperuricemia（OR=1.97）， preoperative left ventricular failure （OR=2.53）， combined CABG and valvular surgery （OR=2.79）， prolonged operation time （OR=1.43 per hour）， postoperative hypovolemia （OR=11.08） were independent risk factors of AKI after cardiovascular surgery. The area under the ROC curve of AKIN classification to predict in-hospital mortality was 0.865 （95% CI 0.801-0.929）. Conclusion Higher AKIN classification is related to higher in-hospital mortality after cardiovascular surgery. Advanced age， preoperative hyperuricemia， preoperative left ventricular failure， combined CABG and valvular surgery， prolonged operation time， postoperative hypovolemia are independent risk factors of AKI after cardiovascular surgery. AKIN classification can effectively predict in-hospital mortality in patients after cardiovascular surgery， which provides evidence to take effective preventive and interventive measures for high-risk patients as early as possible.
ObjectiveTo study the clinical characteristics of elderly hemodialysis (HD) patients and discuss how to control their complications, in order to improve their quality of life and lower their mortality rate. MethodContrastive study and analysis were performed on the clinical data of 98 maintenance HD patients (between elderly and young HD patients) between January 2013 and January 2014. Complications, rate of hospitalization and mortality were analyzed during the follow-up of one year. ResultsThe ratio of hypertensive kidney disease and diabetic nephropathy, as primary disease of the elderly HD patients, gradually increased. More people chose to use semi-permanent jugular vein catheter for elderly HD patients. Compared with young HD patients, the levels of hemoglobin, albumin, serum creatinine, KT/v were lower in the elderly patients, and C-reactive protein was much higher (P<0.05). There was no significant difference in cholesterol, triglyceride, calcium, phosphorus, parathormone between the two groups (P>0.05). Dialysis-related hypotension and blocking of vascular access occurred more frequently in elderly HD patients. Hospitalization rate and mortality rate were higher in elderly HD patients (P<0.05). ConclusionsImproving nutritional status, keeping vascular access unobstructed for a long time and decreasing complications related to hemodialysis are helpful for elderly HD patients to enhance their quality of life and reduce the mortality rate.
Objectives To assess the relationship between subclinical hyperthyroidism and the incidence of coronary heart disease (CHD). Methods PubMed, EMbase, The Cochrane Library, Web of Science, CNKI, VIP, WanFang Data and CBM databases were searched for studies on the relationship between subclinical hyperthyroidism and the incidence of CHD from inception to October 2016. Two reviewers independently screened literature, extracted data, and assessed the risk of bias of included studies. Then, meta-analysis was performed by using RevMan 5.3 and Stata 12.0 software. Results In total, 14 cohort studies were included. The results of meta-analysis showed that subclinical hyperthyroidism was associated with the incidence of coronary heart disease (RR=1.19, 95%CI 1.01 to 1.40, P=0.04) and all-cause mortality (RR=1.36, 95%CI 1.11 to 1.67, P=0.003). Conclusions Subclinical hyperthyroidism is associated with an increased risk of CHD and all-cause mortality. Due to the limitation of quality and quantity of the studies, the above conclusions are required to be verified by large-scale and high quality research.
Abstract: Objective To explore the inhospital mortalityrelated risk factors in the patients undergoing offpump coronary artery bypass grafting (OPCAB). Methods We retrospectively analyzed the clinical data of 215 patients undergoing OPCAB in our hospital from November 2007 to November 2008. There were 171 males and 44 females aged between 40 and 85 years old. Among them, there were 47 patients older than 70 years old. All of them were coronary artery disease (CAD) patients with triple vessel disease. We adopted univarialble analysis and logistic multivariable regression analysis to screen the risk factors for the mortality of OPCAB. Results Six patients died in hospital after OPCAB with a mortality rate of 2.79% (6/215). No renal dysfunction or respiratory failure occurred. The rate of reoperation for bleeding was 4.65% (10/215) and all the 10 patients having undergone reoperation were alive. A total of 209 patients were all alive after 1year follow-up. The results of logistic multivariable regression analysis showed that New York Heart Association (NYHA) Ⅲ and Ⅳ heart function (OR=42.116，95% CI 3.319 to 534.465，P=0.004) and mechanical ventilation duration (OR=1.007，95%CI 1.001 to 1.013，P=0.028) were independent risk factors for inhospital mortality of OPCAB. Conclusion OPCAB is an effective and safe treatment for CAD with triple vessel disease. NYHA Ⅲ and Ⅳ heart function and mechanical ventilation time after OPCAB are the risk factors for OPCAB inhospital mortality, yet, needs further study with large sample.
ObjectiveTo assess the accuracy of European System for Cardiac Operative Risk Evaluation (EuroSCORE) model in predicting the in-hospital mortality of Uyghur patients and Han nationality patients undergoing heart valve surgery. MethodsClinical data of 361 consecutive patients who underwent heart valve surgery at our center from September 2012 to December 2013 were collected, including 209 Uyghur patients and 152 Han nationality patients. According to the score for additive and logistic EuroSCORE models, the patients were divided into 3 subgroups including a low risk subgroup, a moderate risk subgroup, and a high risk subgroup. The actual and predicted mortality of each risk subgroup were studied and compared. Calibration of the EuroSCORE model was assessed by the test of goodness of fit, discrimination was tested by calculating the area under the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve. ResultsThe actual mortality was 8.03% for overall patients, 6.70% for Uyghur patients,and 9.87% for Han nationality patients. The predicted mortality by additive EuroSCORE and logistic EuroSCORE for Uyghur patients were 4.03% and 3.37%,for Han nationality patients were 4.43% and 3.77%, significantly lower than actual mortality (P<0.01). The area under the ROC curve of additive EuroSCORE and logistic EuroSCORE for overall patients were 0.606 and 0.598, for Han nationality patients were 0.574 and 0.553,and for Uyghur patients were 0.609 and 0.610. ConclusionThe additive and logistic EuroSCORE are unable to predict the in-hospital mortality accurately for Uyghur and Han nationality patients undergoing heart valve surgery. Clinical use of these model should be considered cautiously.