ObjectiveTo analyze the trend of disease burden of tracheal and bronchial lung cancer in China from 1990 to 2021 and predict its future changes. MethodsData was extracted from the Global Burden of Disease Database 2021 to analyze the disease burden of tracheal and bronchial lung cancer in China from 1990 to 2021. The Joinpoint regression model was used to analyze the temporal trends. The BAPC model was employed to predict the future disease burden of tracheal and bronchial lung cancer in China. ResultsIn 2021, the standardized incidence rate, standardized prevalence, standardized mortality rate, and standardized DALYs rate of tracheal and bronchial lung cancer in China were 34.01/100 000, 57.95/100 000, 38.98/100 000, and 878.25/100 000, all of which showed an upward trend compared to 1990, with the standardized prevalence increasing the fastest at 71.75%, followed by the standardized incidence rate, which increased by 32.93%. BAPC prediction results indicated that the standardized incidence and prevalence rates of tracheal and bronchial lung cancer in the Chinese population will show an upward trend, while the standardized mortality rate will show a downward trend, and the standardized DALYs rate will remain relatively stable from 2022 to 2035. The standardized incidence rate is expected to rise from 46.18/100 000 in 2022 to 50.32/100 000 in 2035, the standardized prevalence rate is expected to rise from 60.47/100 000 in 2022 to 73.49/100 000 in 2035, the standardized mortality rate is expected to decrease from 39.75/100 000 in 2022 to 36.53/100 000 in 2035, and the standardized DALYs rate is expected to rise from 903.25/100 000 in 2022 to 916.38/100 000 in 2035. ConclusionFrom 1990 to 2021, the disease burden of tracheal and bronchial lung cancer in China showed an upward trend. Although the disease burden among the elderly and males is more prominent, the rate of increase among females in the past decade has been rapid and shows a trend towards younger ages. Comprehensive prevention and control measures should be taken. It is predicted that the situation of tracheal and bronchial lung cancer incidence and prevalence in China will remain very serious from 2022 to 2035.