Objective To investigate the 30-day mortality risk factors in elderly patients (≥70 years) with heart failure with reduced ejection fraction (HFrEF) after isolated coronary artery bypass grafting (CABG) and to construct a nomogram for predicting mortality risk. Methods A retrospective analysis of elderly HFrEF patients undergoing isolated CABG at Tianjin Chest Hospital from 2010 to 2024. Simple random sampling in R was used to divide the dataset into training and validation sets in a 7 : 3 ratio. The training set was further divided into survivors and non-survivors. Univariate logistic regression was performed to identify differences between groups, followed by multivariate logistic stepwise regression to select independent risk factors for death and to establish a death-risk nomogram, which underwent internal validation. The predictive value of the nomogram was assessed by plotting receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves, calibration curves, and decision-curve analyses for both the training and validation sets. ResultsA total of 656 patients were included. The training set consisted of 458 patients (survivors 418, deaths 40); the validation set consisted of 198 patients (survivors 180, deaths 18). In the training cohort, univariate analysis showed significant differences between survivors and deaths for creatinine (Cr) level, brain natriuretic peptide (BNP), maximum Cr, intra-aortic balloon pump (IABP) use, assisted ventilation, reintubation, hyperlactatemia, low cardiac output syndrome, and renal failure (P<0.05). After multivariable logistic regression with stepwise selection, five independent risk factors were identified: IABP use (OR=3.391, 95%CI 1.065–11.044, P=0.038), reintubation (OR=15.991, 95%CI 4.269–67.394, P<0.001), hyperlactatemia (OR=8.171, 95%CI 2.057–46.089, P=0.007), Cr (OR=4.330, 95%CI 0.997–6.022, P=0.024), and BNP (OR=1.603, 95%CI 1.000–2.000, P=0.010). Accordingly, a nomogram predicting mortality risk was constructed. The ROC and calibration analyses indicated good predictive value: training set AUC was 0.898 (95%CI 0.831–0.966); validation set AUC 0.912 (95%CI 0.805–1.000). Calibration and decision-curve analyses showed good agreement and clinical utility. Conclusion The nomogram incorporating IABP use, reintubation, hyperlactatemia, creatinine, and BNP provides good predictive value for 30-day mortality after CABG in elderly patients with HFrEF and demonstrates potential clinical utility.
ObjectiveBy comparing the epidemiological characteristics of the incidence and death of female breast cancer in China and the United States, the differences in prevention and screening strategies between China and the United States were analyzed to explore the prevention and control measures of female breast cancer in China. MethodsBased on the relevant data released by the Global Burden of Disease in 2020, the National Cancer Center of China, and the China Health Statistical Yearbook, the new cases and deaths of breast cancer in Chinese and American women in 2023 were estimated respectively, and the incidence, mortality and time trend of breast cancer in Chinese and American women were analyzed. ResultsIn China, 376 789 new cases of female breast cancer and 116 791 deaths were expected in 2023. In the United States, approximately 297 790 women were expected to be newly diagnosed with breast cancer in 2023, representing approximately 15.2% of new cancer cases. About 43 170 women died from breast cancer, accounting for about 7.1% of all cancer deaths. The incidence of breast cancer in women in the United States during the period 1975–2020 gradually increased and then stabilized; In contrast, the incidence of breast cancer among Chinese women increased year by year during the period 1990–2020. In recent years, the incidence and mortality rates of breast cancer in Chinese women had increased more than those in the United States, and there was a large difference between urban and rural areas in China. ConclusionsBoth China and the United States face a large burden of female breast cancer, and the characteristics of female breast cancer in China are similar to those in the United States. To reduce the burden of breast cancer in Chinese women, further efforts should be made in various aspects, such as strengthening breast cancer education, raising public health awareness, improving diet structure, cultivating healthy lifestyle, increasing screening efforts, and improving medical level.
Objective To analyze the incidence and mortality of acute viral hepatitis in China, project its trends from 2022 to 2030, and provide valuable insights for the prevention and control of viral hepatitis. Methods The incidence and mortality rates of acute viral hepatitis in China from 1990 to 2021 were extracted from the Global Burden of Disease 2021 database. The change rates and the estimated annual percentage change (EAPC) for each indicator were calculated. Additionally, an autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model was used to project the incidence and mortality of acute viral hepatitis in China from 2022 to 2030. Results From 1990 to 2021, the incidence rates of acute hepatitis A (AHA), acute hepatitis B (AHB), acute hepatitis C (AHC), and acute hepatitis E (AHE) in China all showed a declining trend (EAPC=−1.980%, −2.664%, −2.078%, −1.686%; P<0.05), with a particularly marked decrease in mortality (EAPC=−11.662%, −7.411%, −12.541%, −7.504%; P<0.05). According to ARIMA model projections, the incidence rates of AHA and AHB were expected to continue declining from 2022 to 2030, while the incidence rates of AHC and AHE were expected to rise. In 2030, the projected incidence rates of AHA, AHB, AHC, and AHE were 890.425/100000, 824.158/100000, 59.202/100000, and 300.377/100000, respectively. The mortality rates of AHA, AHC, and AHE were projected to remain stable from 2022 to 2030, while the mortality rate of AHB was expected to decline. In 2030, the projected mortality rates of AHA, AHB, AHC, and AHE were 0.002/100000, 0/100000, 0.004/100000, and 0.011/100000, respectively. Conclusions From 1990 to 2021, the overall incidence and mortality of acute viral hepatitis in China showed a downward trend. However, the incidence rates of AHC and AHE may present an upward trend in the future, which suggests that the government and relevant health authorities should adjust their prevention and control strategies in a timely manner.
ObjectiveTo identify the risk factors for hospital mortality in patients with acute myocardial infarction (AMI) after emergency coronary artery bypass grafting (CABG).MethodsWe retrospectively analyzed the clinical data of 145 AMI patients undergoing emergency CABG surgery in Qingdao Municipal Hospital from 2009 to 2019. There were 108 (74.5%) males and 37 (25.5%) females with a mean age of 67.7±11.5 years. According to whether there was in-hospital death after surgery, the patients were divided into a survival group (132 patients) and a death group (13 patients). Preoperative and operative data were analyzed by univariate analysis, followed by multivariate logistic regression analysis, to identify the risk factors for hospital mortality.ResultsOver all, 13 patients died in the hospital after operation, with a mortality rate of 9.0%. In univariate analysis, significant risk factors for hospital mortality were age≥70 years, recent myocardial infarction, left ventricular ejection fraction (LVEF)<30%, left main stenosis/dissection, operation time and simultaneous surgeries (P<0.05). Multivariate logistic regression analysis showed that LVEF<30% (OR=2.235, 95%CI 1.024-9.411, P=0.014), recent myocardial infarction (OR=4.027, 95%CI 1.934-14.268, P=0.032), operation time (OR=1.039, 95%CI 1.014-1.064, P=0.002) were independent risk factors for hospital mortality after emergency CABG.ConclusionEmergency CABG in patients with AMI has good benefits, but patients with LVEF<30% and recent myocardial infarction have high in-hospital mortality, so the operation time should be shortened as much as possible.
ObjectiveTo systematically analyze the incidence and mortality of pancreatic cancer globally and in China from 2018–2022 based on GLOBOCAN 2018, 2020, and 2022 editions released by the International Agency for Research on Cancer, and summarize the main influencing factors to provide reference for the formulation of prevention and control strategies and clinical practice of pancreatic cancer in China. MethodsWe collected and organized data on pancreatic cancer incidence cases, death cases, crude incidence, crude mortality, age-standardized incidence rate by world standard population (ASIRW), and age-standardized mortality rate by world standard population (ASMRW) from the GLOBOCAN database. Combined with socioeconomic parameters such as human development index (HDI) and national income levels, we conducted comparative analysis of the distribution characteristics of pancreatic cancer globally and in China across different regions, age groups, and genders. ResultsFrom 2018 to 2022, incidence number of global pancreatic cancer increased from 458 000 cases to 511 000 cases in 2022, with crude incidence rising from 5.4/100 000 to 6.5/100 000. Deaths increased from 432 000 cases to 467 000 cases, with crude mortality rising from 5.7/100 000 to 5.9/100 000, while ASMRW decreased from 4.4/100 000 to 4.3/100 000. In China, incidence number of pancreatic cancer increased from 116 000 cases in 2018 to 119 000 cases in 2022, accounting for 23.3% of global cases, with crude incidence maintained at (8–9)/100 000. Deaths decreased from 110 000 cases to 106 000 cases, with crude mortality declining from 7.8/100 000 to 7.5/100 000 and ASMRW decreasing from 4.9/100 000 to 3.9/100 000. In 2022, countries with very high HDI had pancreatic cancer ASIRW of 7.9/100 000 and ASMRW of 6.9/100 000, significantly higher than low HDI countries at 1.4/100 000 and 1.3/100 000. Pancreatic cancer incidence showed clear age-related patterns, with the ≥75 age group having 191 157 new cases globally (crude incidence of 63.3/100 000) and 37 722 cases in China (crude incidence of 51.2/100 000). Both globally and in China, males showed higher incidence and mortality than females. ConclusionsPancreatic cancer is becoming an important public health challenge globally and in China, with incidence and mortality likely to continue rising in the future. Comprehensive prevention and control measures including tobacco control, obesity management, and diabetes monitoring should be strengthened. Early screening and standardized diagnosis and treatment for high-risk populations are crucial for improving pancreatic cancer survival rates. Improving the national cancer registry system and integrating multidisciplinary collaborative models can lay a solid foundation for precision prevention and treatment of pancreatic cancer.
Objective A comparative study of in-hospital mortality and risk factors of ventilator-associated pneumonia (VAP) caused by carbapenem-resistant gram-negative bacteria (CRGNB) and non-carbapenem-resistant gram-negative bacteria (nCRGNB) in China was conducted to investigate whether there is a higher in-hospital mortality of VAP caused by CRGNB and its unique associated risk factors. Methods Relevant literatures published at home and abroad in PubMed, EMBASE, Cochrane library, Web of Science, CNKI and Wanfang databases were retrieved from the date of establishment to June 1, 2021, and the quality of the included literatures was evaluated using Newcastle-Ottawa scale. Meta-analysis of literatures meeting the criteria was performed using RevMan 5.3 software. Results A total of 5 literatures were included, all of which were case-control studies with a total of 574 cases, including 302 cases in the CRGNB group and 272 cases in the nCRGNB group. The results showed that the in-patient mortality of VAP caused by CRGNB infection was significantly increased compared with that of VAP caused by nCRGNB infection (OR=2.51, 95%CI 1.71 - 3.67, P<0.00001). Risk factor analysis of CRGNB infection showed that statistically significant risk factors included mechanical ventilation duration ≥7 days (OR=2.66, 95%CI 1.23 - 5.75, P=0.01), secondary intubation (OR=4.48, 95%CI 2.61 - 7.69], P<0.00001), combined with antibiotics (OR=2.83, 95%CI 1.76 - 4.54, P<0.0001), using carbapenem antibiotics (OR=2.78, 95%CI 1.76 - 4.40, P<0.0001). In addition, two studies showed that tigecycline was sensitive to CRGNB in vitro. Conclusions Compared with nCRGNB-induced VAP, CRGNB infection significantly increases the in-hospital mortality of VAP patients in China, indicating that the in-hospital mortality of CRGNB infection is related to drug resistance, and had little relationship with region and drug resistance mechanism. Among them, mechanical ventilation duration ≥7 days, secondary intubation, combined use of antibiotics and carbapenem antibiotics are risk factors for CRGNB infection in VAP patients. Tigecycline is sensitive to most CRGNB strains in China and is an important choice for the treatment of CRGNB in China.
Objective To explore the thromboembolic events and mortality in patients with different types of severe pneumonia, and to analyze the related high-risk factors. Methods A total of 161 severe pneumonia patients who admitted in intensive care unit from January 2018 to February 2023 were included in the study. The patients were divided into a COVID-19 group (n=88) and a community-acquired pneumonia (CAP) group (n=73) according to the type of pneumonia, and divided into a thrombosis group and a non-thrombosis group according to the occurrence of thrombosis. The patients were followed-up until discharge or in-hospital death, registering the occurrence of thrombotic events. Results During the in-hospital stay, 32.9% of CAP and 36.4% of COVID-19 patients experienced thrombotic events (P>0.05). In CAP group all the events (including 24 paitents) were venous thromboses, while in COVID-19 group 31 patients were venous and 3 were arterial thromboses (2 were cerebral infarction, and 1 with myocardial infarction). There were statistically significant difference in gender, age, venous thromboembolism score (VTE score), activated partial thromboplastin time (APTT), and procalcitonin (PCT) between the TE group and the Non-TE group. Logistic regression analysis showed that thrombotic events was associated with sex, age and APTT; gender (female: OR=2.47, 95%CI 1.13 - 5.39, P<0.05) and age (OR=1.04, 95%CI 1.01 - 1.07, P<0.05) were positively associated with thrombotic events. During the in-hospital follow-up, 44.3% of CAP patients and 42.5% of COVID-19 patients died (P>0.05). Receiver operator characteristic (ROC) curve analysis showed that APACHEⅡ score was more accurate in predicting mortality of severe pneumonia, and the area under the ROC curve (AUC) was 0.77 (95%CI 0.70 - 0.84, sensitivity 74.3%, specificity 68.1%), the AUC of the VTE score was 0.61 (95%CI 0.53 - 0.70, Sensitivity 31.4%, specificity 81.7%); the AUC of the creatinine was 0.64 (95%CI 0.56 - 0.73, sensitivity 72.9%, specificity 51.2%). While the Kappa value for kidney disease was 0.409 (P<0.05) presenting moderate consistency. Conclusions The incidence of thromboembolic events and mortality are high in patients with different types of severe pneumonia. Thrombophilia was associated with sex, age, and APTT. APACHEⅡ score, VTE score, and creatinine value were independent risk factors for predicting death from severe pneumonia.
Objective To analyze the incidence and mortality of asthma in China from 1990 to 2019, and to explore the influence of age, period and cohort on the incidence and mortality of asthma. Methods Using the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2019 database, the incidence and mortality of asthma in China from 1990 to 2019 were analyzed, and the time variation trend of age-standardized incidence and mortality was analyzed by using Joinpoint software, and the average annual variation percentage was calculated. The age-period-cohort model was constructed to analyze the influence of age, period and birth cohort on the incidence and mortality trend of asthma. Results In 2019, the incidence of asthma in China was 264.44/100 000, and the mortality rate was 1.74/100 000. The incidence rate of asthma in males (300.94/100 000) and mortality rate (1.99/100 000) were higher than those in females (226.51/100 000 and 1.49/100 000). From 1990 to 2019, the age-standardized incidence of asthma in China showed a downward trend, but the trend was not statistically significant (P>0. 05), and the age-standardized mortality showed a downward trend, with an average annual decrease of 4.90%, with a statistically significant trend (P<0.05). The results of age effect showed that the incidence of asthma in China showed a downward trend, and the death first showed a downward trend, and then increased in the age group of 55-59. The results of period effect show that the risk of asthma is decreasing, and then it is increasing from 2015 to 2019, and the risk of asthma mortality is decreasing. The results of cohort effect show that the later people are born, the lower the risk of asthma onset and death. The death of asthma is attributed to behavioral risk, high body mass index and tobacco, and the occupational risk tends to decrease. ConclusionsFrom 1990 to 2019, the incidence and mortality of asthma in China showed a decreasing trend, and the incidence and mortality of men were higher than that of women. The risk factors of behavioral risk, high body mass index and tobacco were still on the rise, so corresponding measures should be taken to carry out early screening, early detection, and early treatment for key populations.
Risk stratifications are valuable aids for stratifying patients by disease severity, driving informed clinical decisions, because they allow the selection of the most appropriate strategy of treatment based on the patient's individual characteristics. The clinical algorithms help patients and their families to get a better understanding of issues relevant to treatment strategies and subsequent risks as part of the process to obtain informed consent. The current risk stratifications of coronary artery bypass grafting included the Society of Thoracic Surgeons Score, the European System for Cardiac Operative Risk Evaluation, SinoSystem for Coronary Operative Risk Evaluation. This review focuses on the progress of risk stratifications of coronary artery bypass grafting for patients undergoing cardiac surgery.
ObjectiveTo analyze the incidence and mortality of cirrhosis in China from 1992 to 2021, and to explore the impacts of age, period, and birth cohort factors on the incidence and mortality of cirrhosis. MethodsBy means of the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2021 database, the incidence and mortality of cirrhosis in China from 1992 to 2021 were analyzed. The Joinpoint software was used to analyze the temporal trends of the standardized incidence rate and standardized mortality rate of cirrhosis, and the average annual percentage change was calculated. An age-period-cohort model was constructed to deeply explore the effects of age, period, and birth cohort factors on the changing trends of the incidence and mortality of cirrhosis. ResultsIn 2021, the incidence of cirrhosis in China was 772.07 per 100 000, and the mortality was 10.99 per 100 000, representing decreases of 5.53% and 26.98%, respectively, compared with 1992. By gender, in 2021, the incidence of cirrhosis in males (727.95 per 100 000) was lower than that in females (818.32 per 100 000), but the mortality in males (15.53 per 100 000) was higher than that in females (6.24 per 100 000). From 1992 to 2021, the age-standardized incidence rate (ASIR) of cirrhosis in China showed a decreasing trend, with an average annual decrease of 0.31%, which was statistically significant (P=0.014). Similarly, the age-standardized mortality rate (ASMR) of cirrhosis also showed a decreasing trend, with an average annual decrease of 3.21%, which was statistically significant (P=0.021). The age effect results showed that the incidence of cirrhosis in China generally followed a trend of first decreasing, then increasing, and then decreasing again. There was a significant downward trend in incidence in the 5–14 years old group, a significant upward trend in the 15–24 years old group, and a fluctuating downward trend after 25 years old. Mortality rates gradually increased, from 2.32 per 100 000 in the 0–4 years old group to 27.72 per 100 000 in the 85–89 years old group. The period effect results showed that the period relative risk (RR) for cirrhosis incidence first decreased and then increased, with the highest risk from 1992 to 1996 [RR=1.19, 95%CI (1.10, 1.29)]. The period RR for cirrhosis mortality showed a decreasing trend, with the highest mortality risk occurring from 1992 to 1996 [RR=1.41, 95%CI (1.36, 1.45)]. The cohort effect results indicated that the later the birth cohort, the lower the risk of cirrhosis incidence and mortality. In 2021, among the five types of cirrhosis, nonalcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD)-induced cirrhosis had the highest incidence (672.02 per 100 000), while cirrhosis caused by hepatitis B had the highest mortality (8.15 per 100 000). From 1992 to 2021, alcohol-related cirrhosis showed the most significant increase in incidence (37.50%), and NAFLD-induced cirrhosis showed the most significant increase in mortality (25.00%). ConclusionsFrom 1992 to 2021, the ASIR and ASMR of cirrhosis in China show a declining trend. Age, period, and cohort all have significant effects on the trends of cirrhosis incidence and mortality. NAFLD-induced cirrhosis has the highest incidence, while cirrhosis caused by hepatitis B has the highest mortality.